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by Keith Kohl
There’s a two-headed bull set to stampede through the oil markets in 2024.
Each one of these catalysts has the power to push crude prices higher, and when I told you that $70 oil was a screaming buy recently, I meant it.
Let’s start with the most obvious one: War.
There’s no question that the primary driver of oil prices in 2022 started the moment that Russian tanks entered Ukraine. That year, crude soared well into triple-digit territory as Putin weaponized Russia’s energy sector.
Today, nearly two years later, those headlines still have the power to move oil higher. And one thing that has become clear by now is that both sides recognize how crucial each others’ energy infrastructure is.
To give you an idea of just how vulnerable they are, take a look at what happened over the weekend, when drones from Ukraine bombed a major gas export terminal near St. Petersburg. Operations were quickly suspended.
Just a few days prior to that, another Ukrainian drone hit an oil depot in southwest Russia.
Keep in mind that these attacks weren’t on the front lines of the war but deep in Russian territory.
Just like that, Brent crude prices spiked back up to $80 per barrel.
This geopolitical time bomb isn’t even to mention the escalation taking place in the Middle East, where the U.S. and Iran are getting drawn deeper into the conflict that has been growing hotter since the October 7 attacks.
The problem is that things are progressing in the wrong direction.
It’s good then that demand is low, right?
Actually, that couldn’t be further from the truth.
Demand Delusions Implode
There was only ONE thing that could keep a lid on oil prices this year.
Weak demand.
And for months, it’s looked like the market has been confused as to whether or not we would see that occur. The media narrative that the world’s appetite for oil is waning was the only factor preventing crude from breaking out.
We already know that U.S. oil output growth will be tepid at best this year after posting surprisingly strong growth in 2023.
Well, the market is starting to wake up to the fact that things are a lot tighter than they had hoped.
Everybody — even the perma-bearish IEA — is expecting the world to consume more crude oil than ever before in 2024, with current projections ranging between 1.2 million and 2.2 million barrels per day.
My readers and I joked recently that these demand forecasts have had to be revised several times to the upside over the last few months as more people have started to recognize that demand is getting stronger.
Meanwhile, the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Report showed that U.S. consumption was 19.5 million barrels per day last week — 3.3% higher year over year.
But hey, let’s add more fuel to this bullish fire.
Of course, when it comes to oil demand, all eyes have always been on China and India. These two countries will account for a huge share of the world’s demand growth for at least the next decade.
Now we’re seeing China inject a massive amount of cash to keep its economy steady; expect more of that to come down the road. Meanwhile, India has found a new friend in cheap Russian crude oil for its refineries, and they’re happy to skirt sanctions and sell those products to EU markets.
Of course, we haven’t even mentioned the real elephant in the room that could give oil stocks a healthy boost as we move throughout 2024.
Let me give you a hint… He just secured his second Republican presidential primary win this week and would give a much-needed boost to the U.S. oil sector.
We’ll dive into that next week.
Elon Musk: THIS will be bigger than Tesla
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