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by Ross Givens
Hey, Ross here:
If you read the financial news, it’s chock full of talking heads wondering whether this rally has “faltered” or not.
So let’s look a little deeper under the hood at a big predictor of stock prices – the 10-year Treasury yield.
Chart of the Day
The 10-year Treasury yield has been steadily declining since peaking in late October – right before this rally started.
And now, it looks like it’s about to fall through a major support level (white line on chart).
We may see sub-4% yields very soon – which would be hugely positive for stocks.
Notice also that despite the rally pausing, yields are still going down.
If stocks keep pulling back – but yields keep trending down – this is a great sign of a pullback opportunity we can take advantage of.
Why is this the case? That’s what I explain in the Insight of the Day.
Insight of the Day
Yields are falling because traders are betting that central banks will cut rates sooner rather than later.
Here’s a headline from Bloomberg that came out yesterday.
Essentially, bond traders believe that – despite all their bluster – central banks will cut rates sooner than expected.
That’s why they’re bidding up the price of bonds – and pushing yields down.
This is a great signal for stocks…
Because earlier this year, we’ve already seen how pauses in rate hikes can fuel strong rallies…
So imagine what would happen when we shift to rate cuts instead.
It would be like throwing gasoline on a fire.
As I’ve stressed over and over again, that’s why we need to get in position early – before the rest of the market does.
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