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This partial transcript is taken from a recent interview with Jim Rickards.
Host: 60% of the country hates Trump, but that's always been true. However, the idea that maybe 30% of the country can't stand Biden is new. That is going to pretty much sink the Democrats and guarantee the Republicans are going to win. If you're looking for a crystal ball for the 2024 election, you have come to the right place. There are a lot of moving pieces in this one, and some big fireworks could happen. That's why we reached out to our man with big predictions and a history of being right, Jim Rickards, former adviser to the Pentagon, CIA, macroeconomist. Jim, what does everyone need to know about what's shaping up in the election for 2024 and some fireworks that could happen? Go ahead, get us caught up and let us know what we need to know.
Jim Rickards: A week is a lifetime in politics. That's a cliché, but it's a true cliché. Things change rapidly, and it's very hard to make some predictions so far in advance. And the answer was that, yeah, that's all true, but things are happening right now that where you can see the implications of it. They will affect the election in November. We don't want our viewers and our readers to be surprised. We want them to know what's coming and what's happening and not be taken by surprise. You can say that and write about it, but people have trouble internalizing it because they have a certain way of thinking about the election. You need to kind of break that up a little bit and think in a more open-ended way.
Now, let's talk specifically about third parties, and then I'll come back to Trump and Biden. This will be the most significant third-party year since 1992. Now, there are always third parties, but they usually get 1% of the vote, 2% of the vote. The Libertarians always run somebody, the Green Party always runs somebody. They're on the ballot, and they have a nominee every year. Although, don't underestimate the impact of a one or two percenter. Now, I'll go back to 2016 when Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton. Everyone knows the story, even on the morning of the election, Hillary Clinton was getting like 92% odds of winning, 94% odds of winning. Nobody thought Trump could win. Trump didn't think Trump was going to win. Melania didn't think Trump was going to win. There were only a handful of people, myself, Steve Bannon, and a few others, who raised their hands and said, “Yeah, Trump is going to win,” but that was a really tiny group.
But why did he win? Well, he took some key states, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, the so-called blue wall turned into a red wall, at least for Trump. But in those states, remember, Hillary got more popular votes. A place like California, she'll get six million more votes than Trump. It doesn't matter because you can only win California once. Hillary got all the electoral votes in California. It doesn't matter if she won by six votes or six million votes; you only get those electoral votes one time. But she did win by like six million votes. So, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. But that's not how presidential politics works. You go state by state, electoral vote by electoral vote. In places like Wisconsin, Trump won, but only by like less than 1% or close to 1%. Well, Jill Stein, who is the Green Party candidate, got about 2%. And to this day, Hillary blames everyone for the loss – the Russians, trolls, robots, and everything else. But in Wisconsin, Jill Stein might have cost her that state and cost her the election.
Even the one or two percent in a world where the two leading candidates are only 1% apart, a third party that takes one or two percent can affect the outcome. So I wouldn't underestimate that. But having said that, this is going to be much, much bigger. This is going to look like 1992, where Ross Perot got 19%. Now, Ross Perot did not win one single state, but he took an enormous amount of votes from George H.W. Bush, and we got Bill Clinton as a result. Bill Clinton was elected twice, never got a majority of the popular vote. He won in 1992 with something like 43% of the vote, wasn't even close to 50%, but it was more than George Bush, George H.W. Bush. And if Perot had not run, and you disaggregated his vote, some would have voted for Clinton, but more would have voted for George H.W. Bush. George H.W. Bush would have won that election except for Ross Perot.
When else has that been such a big factor in US history? Well, the other time was 1912. What happened then? Well, Teddy Roosevelt became president after William McKinley was assassinated. Early McKinley won the presidential election in 1900, he was assassinated soon after. Teddy Roosevelt was the vice president who became the president. In fact, Teddy Roosevelt was hiking and camping in the Adirondacks. It took them two days to find him. He was up near Mount Marcy. So he served out the remainder of McKinley's term and then a full term on his own. Now, at the time, there was no prohibition on running three or four times. In fact, FDR did win the election four times. So Roosevelt could have run again in 1908 but chose not to, and turned it over to William Howard Taft, who was his vice president and his first and only full term. And Taft won.
So now we get to 1912, and the Republicans are like, well, this is easy, we'll renominate Taft. He's a sitting incumbent president. We'll nominate him. The Democrats nominated Woodrow Wilson. But Teddy Roosevelt changed his mind, decided he wanted to run. He contested the Republican nomination with Taft. Taft won, but then Roosevelt, Teddy Roosevelt, goes out and starts a third party called The Bull Moose Party. And he got also about 19% of the vote, about the same as Ross Perot. Didn't win a single state, but it cost Taft the election, and we got Woodrow Wilson. And what did Woodrow Wilson give us? The Federal Reserve, the income tax, direct election of senators, all these progressive ideas, really bad ideas in many ways, came under Woodrow Wilson. But Wilson would not have won if Teddy Roosevelt hadn't been a third party.
So 1912, 1992 are your two models. 1968 a little bit with George Wallace, although not as big a factor as the others. That's the kind of year this is going to be. So right now, RFK Jr., Robert F. Kennedy Jr., tried really hard to be a Democrat. I mean, who's more Democratic than the Kennedy family, right? Going back to Joseph P. Kennedy in the 1940s. But the Democratic party today is not the Democratic party of JFK, and RFK Jr.'s father, Bobby Kennedy. It's completely changed. It's radical, it's extreme, it's so-called progressive, really neo-Marxist. And they really don't have any interest in RFK Jr. They want Biden, at least for now, because he's a puppet.
So, okay, why don't I just have a primary season and let the best person win? Well, the answer is no, the Democrats don't actually believe in democracy. They like to rig the game. They tried to get New Hampshire to move its primary after South Carolina. You know, New Hampshire's always the first primary in the country. But New Hampshire is completely run by Republicans. We have a governor, Sununu, in both houses, legislature controlled by Republicans. And I live in New Hampshire, but I'm coming to you live from New Hampshire right now. And by statute, New Hampshire has to be first. It's not even a choice or a committee decision. It's actually the law of the state of New Hampshire. And just two days ago, New Hampshire announced the date of the New Hampshire primary. And guess what? It's a week before South Carolina. The DNC, Democratic National Committee, wanted South Carolina to go first because what happened in 2020, Joe Biden finished fifth in New Hampshire, fifth, not second or third, fifth, behind Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, I think Buttigieg, and a couple of other candidates at the time. But he won South Carolina. So they want South Carolina to be first. It's not happening.
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So Kennedy was basically forced out of the Party by the Democrats themselves, and he's going third party. He's polling around 15%, and that's without much effort. He's getting a ton of money, a lot of contributions. He's got the money, he's got the brains, he's got the lawyers. He's in the process of getting on the ballot. That's hard. I worked for a third party effort and a presidential candidate in 2012, and had some top-notch polling, so I actually have a little experience in how that all works behind the curtain. Not easy to get on the ballot, but Kennedy can do it.
Now you've got Cornel West running on the Green Party ticket for the nomination. Cornel West is a kind of a hard-shell Marxist. I don't agree with much, if anything, of what he says, but he is brilliant, a great TV presence, great rhetorically, great on TV, great public speaker. So whether you agree with him or not, that is what it is, but I'm trying to evaluate him as a candidate. He's very powerful, he's smart, articulate, telegenic. He'll get out there, and he'll get votes.
And Jill Stein is back, she's running on the Green Party too. I'm not sure how Cornel West and Jill Stein are going to sort that out, but the other, you know, 200-pound gorilla in the room is Joe Manchin. Joe Manchin is a United States senator from West Virginia, Democrat. He was probably going to lose his election this year, so just the other day he announced he's not running for Senate. So you can kind of flip that seat over to the Republicans. It's even Republicans aren't dumb enough to lose West Virginia. So he'll probably get… so that'll be a Republican seat, which is a big deal in terms of the Senate.
But Manchin said he didn't announce he was running for president, but he said, “I'm going on what they call a listening tour,” meaning you go around the country, you go to whatever Chamber of Commerce, Rotary Club, high school auditorium, dinner, etc., and you kind of get your name out there and get all the local press coverage, and you get to hear what people think. Well, that is a prelude to announcing that he's going to run for president. So he hasn't formally announced yet, but I expect he will, and he'll probably go on something called the No Labels party. I guess no label is a label, but they've done it. They did with this other party I was talking about in 2012 I worked with. They got on the ballot.
So you're very likely to come into Election Day, November 5th, 2024, with RFK Jr., Cornel West, Jill Stein, and Joe Manchin, all of whom are very powerful in their own way. They're all different from each other, but they have their following. The polls show that 70% or more of the Democrats don't want Joe Biden to run, and 33% of the Democrats said they would vote for RFK Jr. if he did run as an independent. So you're likely to see some number, and it's hard to say what, but kind of 20% or more of the vote going to these third-party candidates, mostly Democrats, because they don't like Biden. I mean, you know, 60% of the country hates Trump, but that's always been true. But the idea that maybe 30% of the country can't stand Biden is new, and for an incumbent president of a major party, so that is going to pretty much sink the Democrats and guarantee the Republicans are going to win.
Now, let's have a… but again, people aren't ready for this. It's happening, you can kind of pick it up in trends from the media and so forth, but nobody's thinking about it. And you know, you got to be a certain age to remember 1992. I don't remember 1912, but I read about it. And so this doesn't happen often, as I mentioned, there are two cases in the last 110 years, but it does happen, and this looks like one of those times.
Now, if you're a Democrat, and I'm talking about Democratic power brokers, because Democrats don't really believe in democracy. I mean, they go through the motions, and they accuse Trump of being a dictator, whatever, but it's the Democrats who rig the elections.
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