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Below is a transcript taken from a recent video with Income Expert Marc Lichtenfeld
Hi everyone, I'm Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist for the Oxford Club. Welcome to State of the Market, and welcome to 2024. Here we go again. Now, I have some predictions about what's going to happen this year, forecasts that will blow your mind. Now, before we get to that, a quick recap of 2023.
Despite near-unanimous expectations of recession in 2023 and a nasty bear market in 2022, stocks turned on a dime on the first trading day last January and climbed nearly 10% in the first month of the year. Nice! But wait a minute, in February, the Fed raised rates by a quarter point to a range of 4.2% to 4 and 3/4%. And it was really annoying. In March, the Regional Bank crisis touched off, thanks to some boneheaded risk management at Silicon Valley Bank.
The Fed raised rates again to a range of 4.75% to 5%. That's right, rates were raised again to the range of 5% to 5 and 1/4%, and again in July, where it stands today at 5 and 1/4 to 5 and 1/2%. We're done when I say we're done.
Oil spiked in September, leading to high gas prices. And it was estimated that the Fab 4 – Barbie, Oppenheimer, Beyonce, and Taylor Swift – added 8.5 billion dollars to the US economy over the summer. Then in November, consumers spent a record $123 billion online, including $38 billion in the 5 days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. And the market finished the year up 24%, or 26.4% if you include dividends, which I most certainly do.
So, that was 2023, a very good year for the market and the economy. So, what will happen in 2024? Let me consult the trading gods. This year will be another strong year for the market. In presidential election years, the market goes up an average of 7%. However, when a first-term president is seeking reelection, the average is a more robust 12.2%. But I expect an even stronger year for the market. Valuations are still quite reasonable, and late last year, we saw a technical signal that's as rare as a Chiefs game with no mention of Taylor Swift. She's here, Taylor is in the house!
The market gave us a ZAG breadth thrust. Who are you? Well, that sounds more like a dance from the '60s. It's actually a very accurate and infrequent bullish signal. The one late last year is just the 18th in the past 80 years. Now, it's a measure of advancing and declining stocks and only occurs before a big market rally. So, this is a really positive sign.
Now, keep in mind, the market is a forward-looking indicator. It usually signals what the economy is going to do, not the other way around. The market doesn't go down because the economy is bad; it goes down because it's about to get bad. Same thing for bull markets, signaling good or improving economies. Think about the Great
Recession: the market bottomed in March 2009 while the economy was still in the toilet, but the halt of the decline suggested the economy was not going to collapse as many feared. So, last year's 24% gain in the S&P tells me there is not going to be a recession in 2024. Markets don't post huge rallies right before the economy tanks; that doesn't make sense.
So, all the naysayers and negativists will have to wait at least another year to see their incessant doomsday scenarios come true. What's your forecast for the market this year?
Thanks for watching State of the Market. I'm Marc Lichtenfeld. I'll see you next time.
Elon Musk: THIS will be bigger than Tesla
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Hello. I'm James Altucher. I've been called a “genius investor” by my fans… And an “eccentric millionaire” by some others. I think it's because I make big predictions… That tend to come true. Today, I'm revealing a brand-new prediction:
American manufacturing will leave China…
And make a triumphant return to America…
Thanks to AI-powered robots.
The technology is being developed right now. I'm talking about, among others… Elon Musk's Optimus robots. These robots are autonomous workers… Embedded with a smart “AI brain”. Musk is going to use thousands of them in Tesla factories… AI robots will make it cheaper to manufacture goods here in America than China. And they'll create new American jobs in construction, maintenance, transportation, management, and more. Musk believes the potential of these robots is almost limitless… And could soon exceed Tesla's revenues… He's even said his robots have the potential to be used in homes… To make dinner and do housework… Care for the elderly… Or even hinted at them… Being a buddy or “romantic companion” for lonely people. Now that may sound strange… (And perhaps it is.) But I've learned not to bet against Musk's vision. And this is just one of the ways AI will transform our economy and society. In fact, I now predict… Between now and January 9, 2024… Next generation AI technology will open a “wealth window”… That could be the biggest wealth-building opportunity of your lifetime. I now expect AI to be the first $100 TRILLION industry. There could be trillions available to those who get in early… Today, for the first time… I'm showing good Americans exactly what to do… Go here now to see my plan… For investing in AI during this brief “wealth window”.
P.S. If you missed out on crypto, this could be your second chance. The AI “wealth window” is opening now, but you must get in before January 9, 2024. Don't delay. See all the details you need here.
